I know it's been all over the news since the 20th of September, that we are now out of a recession since June. But I am curious, where the hell have I been all of this time. Who is stating these facts? Did we just pull millions of dollars magically out of a hat?
Let's look at several facts.
-- We are going into an election period. So is this just 'feel good' talk to get one to think otherwise?
-- The Homebuyers Tax Credit. In my opinion, that artificially stimulated the economy. But that helped some real estate numbers look good, like there was a real recovery.
-- Jobs? Sure, some jobs have been created, but within the government and this could add to the free spending that has taken place. So how has that helped. What about those small businesses that keep laying off or close shop. Just some ideas for food for thought.
-- Foreclosure numbers keep rising and mortgage modifications not only become more difficult, but 50% or more that are helped, fail 6 months later.
If you don’t want the truth or face the facts, don’t continue reading.
So let’s define recession. All definitions below are from wikipedia. “A recession in economics is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity over a period of time.” There seems to be two strong definitions of recession outside of what was just mentioned.
- The main rule of thumb, which is simply defined “as a period when GDP falls (negative real economic growth) for at least two quarters. The GDP is the measure of a country’s overall economic output.”
- Then you have the NBER, the National Bureau of Economic Research, who is generally seen as the authority for dating U.S. recessions. The NBER states a recession “as a significant decline in the economic activity spread across the country, lasting for more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment not to include farm payrolls, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
Here is what scares me the most. Back in mid 2007 to early 2008, I had written several times which can be documented that we have been in a slight recession since early 2007. But look at this. It wasn’t until December 2008 that the NBER stated that the recession had started one year earlier, in December 2007. Here is a good article from MSNBC, ‘Great Recession’ over, research group says.
So here is the main question at hand. What or who actually determines when we are out of a recession? Glad you asked, because it seems to be based on more of a thought process than in general terms. What specific numbers that look good in a month or two, when in reality, the overall picture is not good. And common sense? My common sense tells me that it's not getting better. Read along....
We don't want bad news, that is all we hear. We hate doom and gloom. But if we don’t know about it or think things are better just because we are told so, how does one fix the problems that we face now as a country? I certainly don’t want to be sweeping this under the rug, just because it’s been determined that we are now out of a recession.
What should be very important and talked about most, right now, so we can move forward?
- Unemployment/jobs – What happened to this so-called stimulus package in May 2009 that was going to stimulate jobs? The only jobs I truly saw created were those within the government.
- Small businesses – we need to keep focus on helping the small business not fail. In my opinion, without small businesses, it will hurt our economy greatly.
- Real Estate – Home values have plummeted in many areas. We are still seeing more and more foreclosures and over 50% of those that get mortgage modifications, fail on their payment plans 6 months after.
- Wall Street – It’s been a yo-yo for the last 12 months, with hardly any consistencies. Up 100 pts, down 100 pts. People are afraid to invest. Many would rather keep the money under their mattress.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, made this statement. “It was noteworthy that the panel settled on June, as it was during that month that the spending from the Recovery Act stimulus was at its maximum.”
In my honest opinion, I think nothing should have been said, because every month I see specific numbers fluctuate up and down. I didn’t graduate Harvard with an MBA in Economics, but from talking to so many on the streets, seeing it daily with my own two eyes, small businesses going out of business, we have a ways to go. Why try to make us feel good with such a statement, based on numbers that keep changing, or indicators that can be manipulated. Could this just be a political spin because of the upcoming elections?
There needs to be a call to action and that Main Street America deserves more than just some ‘feel good’ words. How can we help? Your vote means more now than ever before, this coming November. It’s a start and we need a fresh start. We need to think this through and all come together. What do you say?
Lewis Poretz even wrote about this and stated all of what I stated in simple terms.
Will the second dip be worse than the first?
Myrl Jeffcoat gives an excellent quote from Charles Dickens at the end of her post... please go and read it.
The Recession is Over – But Is it Really?
Here is some more news... Durable goods orders fall 1.3% in August, missing expectations
Just more reason why I think, again, that we jumped the gun in stating that the reason is over....
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Jeff, I was hoping that meant that real estate agents would be getting some kind of gratuity. But alas...
Jeff - This whole thing is a mess and we have "the nuts running the nut house"!! I agree that the election in November is really important, may be a great time for the People to REPLACE THE NUTS with a brand new batch. I voe fore 435 FRECHMAN CONGRESSMEN!!!
I agree as well that the election is playing a part in all of this. So lets see what January brings.
Jeff - When I first heard about the news that Recession ended in July 2009, I almost laughed so hard, I thought I was listening to stand-up comedy. Like you, I seriously thought oh - Me and the rest of my clients must have been MIA this whole time.
Who ever came up with this joke?
I'm in the process of doing a YTD market report. The March - August monthly reports for this year has not been accurate at all.
Jeff, when I first heard it, I assumed it was news from The Onion. I remarked I was sure all the folks who were losing their homes or had lost their homes - as well as those who cannot find jobs - would be thrilled to hear it.
Jeff- I think that finally people in America are waking up and realizing that the elitists running our country think we are so stupid that we will believe anything they tell us.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.
We have had enough of being lied to and all this political stupid crap that people are just finally not believing any more. Too long we have slumbered through the campaigns, and too long have we been either Dem or Rep. Now it is time to be AMERICAN. To heck with the parties. They are elitists and full of it.
They want us to think we are not educated enough to know what is good for us, when there is a recession or when there is not. etc. Well, tell that to the people who don't have jobs, who don't have homes, who are struggling every day. I don't think it is rocket science to do the math on that one. Katerina
LARRY... . lol.. now, wouldn't that be nice and to easy.. what about us mortgage people? Can I get a tip?
TED... . I'm a nut, put me in there.. and yes, I agree, this November will be huge...
JOAN.... . what's said is that I am sure there is some truth in this, but the facts are ignored and not explained properly. All they state is a few 'feel good' statements and we are suppose to then feel better. Sorry.. BS.. tell me more. Let's improve this situation and now.. not later when it gets worse again on paper.
STEFAN.... . yes, sit and wait... but we need to do more and not just with the elections.. thanks
LOREENA... . I would be interested in your reports. Just keep in mind, real estate and those numbers are local. But what about the so-called gurus that tell everyone that housing prices will decline another 10% to 20% in the next year. But these same gurus failed to say that some markets have increased by 10% in the last 6 months or so... it just seems to be who can spit what numbers the furthest... thanks
SUSAN... . yes, there are those that have felt the pinch who would disagree... but even those that are making it right now, what are they really saying? People need to also be honest and not a politician. thanks
Katerina... bingo and Amen... American... "We the People"... I am with you and just sick of both sides, the hatred, how one side might have an actual good idea, but that the other side shoots it down because it didn't come from them. God damn it.. that is such crap. And yes, we the people, Americans, need to take this country back. Our poor forefathers are probably rolling around in their graves twice over daily. Thanks for your feedback and input.
Here is some more news... Durable goods orders fall 1.3% in August, missing expectations
Just more reason why I think, again, that we jumped the gun in stating that the reason is over....
Belonger - At times I want to retreat and call it a day in this Conservative World that is AR, but I actually agree with you on most of these things. We aren't out of the ills and I could give a shit less who wants to blame whom for creating them. As a matter of fact, I'd like everyone to look into the mirror and shut the hell up! And then keep talking, cause that is healthy.
This administration's policies won't reside with many. Having a quasi-Liberal President would be similar to having a quasi-Conservative one. My only saving grace as a decendent in between extremes is that I don't think it is over, though I think things have improved. The latter is from my own personal experience.
I will vote in November and I have a pretty simple platform. Give me your Fiscal Conservatives and Socially Liberal Folks ... and I'll vote for that guy or gal. Until then, I'll vote on Philosophy ... and mine differs from practicallly all your readers, I'm sure.
I feel the economy is getting some traction. I have been through a lot of these before. The good news is that they don't last forever-- even the Great Depression did not last forever. The beauty of capitalism is that if there is a profit to be made somewhere, someone will find it. To me, there was a tremendous adjustment in the economy, couple with a failed financial system, but history has shown we'll get through this one too. New industries will emerge, such as sustainable energy, which will be growth engine into a newer economy.
Jeff, how can they say the recession is over when there are millions of mortgage loans currently in default??? I know there's a formula for how this is all computed, but give me a break! I agree with you the tax credit did nothing but artificially inflate housing prices and sales numbers. Unemployment is at an all time high of something like 9.5% and that's just the national average. In my market area it's something ridiculous like 16%.
People who have lost good paying jobs aren't getting them back any time soon. All the bills that have been passed are creating more taxes, more government spending of money they don't have, and increasing costs to do business. Small businesses are the wheel of economics of our respective, local areas. But it will be hard for small businesses to continue and profit (yes, I said profit) when all the nutjobs in Washington want to do is dumb everything down and take away profit so that we'll all be equal, and live in near poverty. Don't forget it is our current elected President who said "redistribute the wealth."
Vote in November, and Californians don't forget -- vote YES on PROP 23, to suspend AB 32, the Global Warming Act of 2006 that, if left unchecked, will tax Californians to death.
Cudda fooled me! I have heard that too. H-m-m-m, could it be that the media speaks with forked tongue or have the talking heads been smokin' too much wacky bacca...
Jeff, a statistician doesn't care if you're unemployed, not taking home as much as you did in the past or other upsetting economic news. So, being 'out of the recession' is very relative.
recession-nope-wrong word/term. it sure does stir up/inflame the old emotions, but isn't that what the media and our politicians are trying to do.
just a couple of thoughts.
why is my biggest competitor $$$$$, that would be cash, cash buyers, they're everywhere, they're crushing the buyers needing mortgages, lots of cash.
why do i continually hear from the unemployed that they have turned down employment because it didn't pay enough, not that they couldn't find jobs.
no doubt, there's still a great deal to be done, to be accomplished, so let's continue to suck it up and get to it.
Jeff:
I think they used the standard measurement of two quarters of negative growth in a row. And, amazingly we may not have had that again. But that is the technical explanation. With unemployment, low consumer confidence and a poor housing market, most of us are still very much feeling the word "recession."
I don't understand what all the debate is really about. There's a precise definition that economists use to define a recession (a definition that is largely unrelated to the real world) and, according to that definition, the recession ended. Are people still hurting? Yes. Is unemployment still high? Yes. Is consumer confidence low? Yes. Of course.
So if someone announced tomorrow that the sky was pink and purple polka dots, would that change what the sky actually looked like? No. You could just look up and see for yourself.
The other thing that amuses me is that one of a Realtor's mantras is that "all real estate is local." Watch out if someone in, say, Tucson says the market is slow and someone else chimes in from Baltimore disputing that. Whoa! It's local down to the neighborhood.
Yet when we're discussing the recession, it's perfectly OK to talk about Tucson and Juneau and Baltimore and Miami and Knoxville as if they were all one and the same.
I try to be introverted in things I can not control. . I'm having a great year personally because of it. .I dwell in what I can control. .my own business and charge ahead.
There may be indexes that are no longer negative, but the "new Normal" is here for quite a long while. Like Reagan said, a recession is when the guy next door loses his job, but a depression is when you lose yours. 20% of the country is in a depression.
I think casting your vote is the best thing we all can do right now. I enjoyed reading your post.
JASON.... . please don't look in that mirror... lol <teasing> Yes, to many finger pointing, yet nobody wants to take responsibility. And for the most [art, yes, I believe that we are still in the thick of things... thanks
NANCY... . I will agree, there is some traction, but I am talking about the overall outlook. One thing that I will disagree about in your tone is that just because they didn't last long in the past, doesn't mean that it won't last long now. Sorry, but that kind of thinking could even make it worse for us... just saying it and hoping is what those on Capital Hill have been doing also... and that scares me even more. Maybe by the economists definitions that you are talking about that this doesn't last long, but I am sorry, this will be like this for a few more years. And that's not long? I hope I am wrong... but if we continue to free spend as a gov't, it will hurt more and not help. My whole point? We just can't rely on history here....
In regards to capitalsim.. sure, there will always be those that make money and more money, find ways, etc, etc.. but again, those are the few. I am talking about the masses here, the average person who will suffer and still suffer.
In regards to new industries that will emerge and grow, such as you mentioned, sustainable energy? Here is my take on this.. a lot of this could have taken place years ago. It has been slow in happening because there is less profit in it. Yes, it helps us out more as a cleaner and healthier society, but in my opinion, not from a profiteering mode or method. thanks for your feedback...
PAMELA.... . that is a major part of the problem... more bills passed in creating more taxes and the gov't free spending, in which some think it will help... and I see it as hurting us in most cases. Not saying that some of it has helped.. but a great example. Shouldn't the President and First Lady lead the way? Instead of taking trips overseas to shop with an armed escort? hhhhmmm Having parties all the time... etc, etc. Who is paying for all of that? ah, "We the People"... thanks for your input.
MICHAEL.... . yes, you are a tough one to fool... ;o) Seriously, I don't think you need to be smoking anything, but it certainly feels like someone is.. thanks
GABE.... . good point... and in my opinion, especially if you are on Obama's pay roll and that it's election time for many. Just saying.... I know one could look at this from both sides, but what numbers are being used and which ones are being ignored. thanks
Jeff: Thanks. I'm glad you said it. Things may be better than 2008 (the nadir in my book) but how much better? It will probably be years before we have a more normal real estate market where people are actually buying homes again. And I fully expect deflation. All the numbers seem to be pointing to this so I expect very slow or no growth for at least the next couple of years. The stock market will follow suit. I guess that's good news for us in the mortgage business. Although I expect rates to rise sometime within the next year, I think they may get into the 5's which is still pretty low. Thanks for the post! Take care.
Jeff....your post (a good one) reminded me of George Orwell's 1984. The powers that be would announce that the chocolate ration was up and people would get excited about it. Then, a few weeks later, they would announce it is down, but coffee rations were up. THE POINT: No one ever saw the chocolate or the coffee.....they just read about it. So, the recession is over.....?
JAY... . sure, the media just reports what is heard and depending what side of politics it's on, it will sometimes report it incorrectly, without all the facts. In regards to your cash buyers.. I am not going to argue, there are a decent amount out there. But if you look at everybody as a whole, this is a small percentage. There will always be people with money, in any economy. Does it mean that it's recovering? Not in my opinion.
In regards to those that have turned down employment because it didn't pay as much, yes, that irks me and yes, it does happen. I have heard some actually admit it. But again, I am sure the numbers are smaller than the ones that are actually on unemployment and actually can't find jobs.
Let me throw this out at you. Okay, you have some that are on unemployment who turn down lower paying jobs. If they would accept a job, then they would be off of unemployment and the unemployment number could get better? right? What about those that can't find a job period, even if it was lower paying, but who aren't on the unemployment numbers now, because their unemployment ran out, or that it wasn't renewed. Couldn't this just wash out those that you just talked about? Just putting it out there.
Overall... in regards to your statements, I am not sure if you were disputing what I wrote or agreeing. I would say the first based on your info. Sucking it up? Easier said than done when your family has been torn a part because of today's economy. thanks
CLAUDETTE... . that is my whole point. What formula did they use and was it truly just based on the technical terms and usages. In my opinion, yes, that is how I see it. And I agree, I think many to more than average are still feeling it. thanks
DONALD.... . I guess you missed the blunt of my point then. I agree with some of your statements, but my point is that if some people hear this message, that we are now out of a recession, does this make some relax? Just saying.. How about the fact that if some feel that others say it's better, do we put our guards down and not try to come up with more and better solutions? Is it so the gov't can breathe some as they think of another plan of attack, so they don't keep getting beat up over this topic? So yes, there is a reason why we should talk about this and take it seriously... and worry about what the media and gov't says. Just my opinion.
In regards to your real estate issue of what is local and what isn't. I understand what you are saying... and in my opinion, when they talk about bad local markets, they are just trying to use examples to show that it is bad out there. Question, what is wrong with that? It's just trying to prove a point and to squash the overall opinion that it's all good out there. thanks for your input.
FERNANDO.... . hey, that;s great... it's awesome that you are having a better year. I actually had one of my better years in 2008, when a lot of this was happening and when more were just starting to suffer. But can I just put this out there politely? You stated this... "I dwell in what I can control. .my own business and charge ahead."
Hey, that's good, I guess. But couldn't you be doing more on your part to help some? To help others? Could this be the part of teh problem and what I call, people sticking their heads in the sand? Just worried about themselves? Maybe that a lot of the gov't is doing the same? My point? We need leaders. You, me, and others.. to stand up.. to help. to give ideas and to fight back for Americans rights. Just my opinion. This was not pointing the finger at you, but just using your statement as an example. thanks
PHILLIP.... . that is a whole other topic and argument, about depression and recession.. and double dip recession, etc, etc. But yes, there may be new indexes that are now labeled as "normal", even though they still may be negative outside the meaning for those words or phrases. thanks
CHERYL... . I agree and I think the next several months will be interesting. And thanks for that polite compliment.
I definitely agree that the upcoming election has a lot to do with the recession statement. If only it were that easy to state that it's over and it would be. Funny how politicians think.
It seems to be that the technicality of what a recession is and what it feels like to be in a recession are not on the same page right now.
Yippie is right, Jeff! We'll be celebrating our ways to the poor house.
Yeah Jeff, The same day I read that the recession was over there was another article on the same page lamenting that economic indicators had in fact worsened. Every politician in the country needs to be removed from office and replaced with common everyday hard working people with some common sense.
I know the economy is still in the tank by the number of out of state license plates that I see on the roads around Houston every day. Same thing happened in the late '80s and it's just as bad now. People are here trying to find work.
Jeff,
As a famous chef would say 'BAM!'. You nailed it and I am with you, where and when are we marching on the man? Seriously, we need to get some folks leading the country that understand business and have a desire to put the U.S. economic engine back on track.
-Brent
Recession Over, try selling that idea to the millions of unemployed people with no job in sight.
Gee Jeff, I think I've heard those words on your blog title before. Let's see it was last week, no it was 6 months ago, no it was in 2009, maybe in the middle of 2008. I've gotta stop listening to some of those talking heads in DC they mess my mind up. You are spot on about the small businesses, towns and families fail without them.
I checked out the Mortgage Myth Busters website last week, love it!
I was driving in my car, when I heard that. Laughed out loud.
Then heard it all over the news that night.
My thoughts then and now: "Ask all the unemployed people, ask those who have given up looking, ask all those who have lost their homes, ask those whose 401K's are depleted.
(((sigh)))
PAUL.. . that's the whole thing, define better. Inflation.. deflation... recession... depression.. right now, we just need to focus on some key elements. And I agree, I still see it taking 3 yrs plus for some sort of recovery. But then again, define recovery. What about the future 10 to 20 yrs from now. Will we really crawl out of this hole? hhhhmmmm
RICHIE... . that is one of my biggest problems with the powers, those high up... have the power to say what they want and what they think others want to hear. Aren't they like a glorified sales person at times? And thanks for the polite compliment.
SHAWN... . I guess it's funny, but the end result is that it's sad on how they think. thanks
EILEEN.... . well, they definitely aren't the same.. but what irks me is that they make these statements, but nobody really defines these terms or truly tell what was used to make such a determination.
IRENE.... . what, you aren't there already?
JEANNE & RALPH.... . I keep getting news updates about such economic indicators and wonder what they are truly looking at.... or what figures they tend to ignore. It baffles me and this argument could go on for years with the top economists... some will be on one side and some will be on the other side. I guess those that are with the President are the ones that are right... hhhmmm
BRENT & DEB.... . yes, we need business people to lead this country... and those that have been in the trenches.. not those stuck on Capital Hill, thinking that they know it all because they have some Harvard degree... not that a degree from Havard is bad... but I think it's overrated at times. We need to learn from those in the trenches. thanks
ROB... . well, we know it won't go over with them very well. Then again, how many are milking it though.. or trying? Just throwing that out there. I see both...
CYNTHIA.... . as much as this is bad news, which people don't want to hear... we need to hear it, and why... so we can help fix it or try... just my opinion on why I don't like to hear fluff. And thank you very much about our new site, the Mortgage Myth Busters. We are excited about it and want to push the questions & answers part.. to be better than a Trulia or Zillow.. for many reasons. So, thanks for that polite compliment.
MISSY.... . I hope it didn't make you wreck your car.... but yes, we can ask those that are most affected by all of this. But more so, as I mentioned in a few comments, we need real life people, those from the trenches who can help and who have been through this.. and not just those that sit on Capital Hill. thanks
Jeff - Great post. Glad it was featured ! Yes, just because we are out of a recession does not mean that we are in growth expansion, that is for sure. Definitely not a v-shaped recovery. Yes, things may not be getting worse, but they are definitely not getting better. Yes, corporate news is not bad, but most of the growth is overseas, and not much is domestic. The unemployment rate is scary and that is where the focus should be, that and on small business. The talk about not extending the Bush tax cuts is scary. November elections will create some change and will help to some degree but then what. It is crazy out there. The numbers are all over the place : ).
Only time will tell ! In the mean time, lets keep a pulse on whats going out there together with our blogs ! ~ Chris
Jeff, I didn't get the memo about the recession being over, I'll have to check my spam blocker...my computer must have seen this news as a fake.
Eeek. Not so sure if we're out of this thing or not. Unemployment still high. Faked increased demand with tax credit. Millions of backlogged foreclosures. More banks in trouble. And now strategic defaults by people saying ''screw it.''
According to the reports, the recession has been over for 8 months. I've been railing against the negative press for almost that long. All the other segments of the economy that are "down" will turn around just fine if we focus on being positive.
Jim you mean we CAN'T print prosperity? Somebody should raise taxes on small business owners pronto. And subsidize windmills.And solar... That should do the trick. Next! What's next Strategic Defaults by the TBTF Banks?" I'm sorry, we can't find your loan info. sir, oh, wait here it is, It's not worth anything so we don't carry your loan on the balance sheet, you know, pesky capital requirements."
Repeat after me: The economy isn't CRASHING, it's DECELERATING.
Jeff, here's my take. I am not going to argue this point and here's why. Sometimes all people need to hear is that "we're out of a recession". Just the simple mention of these words can stimulate consumers enough to get off the fence and make purchases. Many will say, "Darn, I missed the bottom of the market. I better go out and buy that house before interest rates start to creep back up." Isn't that what we want? I know that's what I want. So there is no advantage to me to argue this point. Instead, I'm telling every client I have "We're out of the recession, it's time to buy!!"
Another case of "Say it and they'll believe it" And lets think up a new word for unemployment, bankruptcy, foreclosure while we're at it! "Recession" is simply overused. "Stimulus"...another word rarely heard prior to this "Economic Down Turn" Sheesh, bring back Jim Henson and the Muppet Show!
Now Wendy, Its not a stimulus it's an economic development plan...
Remember, we're not experiencing DEFLATION, but DISINFLATION. And soon you can just reverse the two.
Some say the recovery has sputtered, but it would be more accurate to say the economy has stubbornly refused to recover since bottoming out last year.
Ben says I'm only going to repeat this once. SO LISTEN UP: Quantitative Easing will make this disappear. Oh no sireee!!!!!! There was no bubble bursting or anything!!It was just a 'Relief Fart' of excesses in the system! why, you wanna kill a beautiful system for just excess gas!! We need to update the definition of "delinquent" to better match the optimism and reflect the recovery summer our bold President has engineered. If you squint real hard and think about it, loans really aren't delinquent until the Homeowners phones are disconnected and the power is turned off. Until that happens there is hope. GOT IT!! Don't make me send Tim over to talk to EVIL Real Estate People.I'm the Fed Chairman and what I say goes.
CHRIS... . that's the whole problem and concern.. even if things aren't getting worse on paper, are they getting better? Sure, in a few months, we have seen spending... but in most cases, all other numbers are down and some getting worse. I guess it's called.. pick and choose day. I'll pick these good numbers, yet ignore these bad numbers. Overall, yes, we need to still write about this... people need to be aware and not just assume because they heard what they liked. We need to come together, group ideas together, and grow as one... work as one... and make this happen. thanks
STEVE... . funny... I'll make sure the gov't has you on their priority list. ;o)
BROOKS... . that is another thing, about the strategic defaults and such... which it's still happening at high clips. thanks
BRYAN... . don't be fooled for the fact that this post might come across negative, because it's bad news. I think many of us think positive in our daily lives. But we need to hear the truth in order to make things change. But sorry, just saying that things should turn around and to be positive that way might have gotten us in some of these messes. To me, that's called "hope", which President Obama has used often. And just by praying, hoping, and staying positive, doesn't always make things better. Besides, how long should we then just sit back, telling ourselves that things do turn around, and just to be positive about it? Question.. what happens in the next 2 years that this method didn't work then? Then what? Sorry, but we need to do now and one wouldn't know if I kept on ramming positive thoughts down someones throat and telling people what they want to here.. it's human nature for people to relax some then and just think it will get better. We need leaders to take charge and not just hope... thanks
MIKE M. ... . I am assuming Jim was meant for me, because I don't remember replying to a Jim in this thread. And I am assuming that your next few sentences were you just being sarcastic, right? I just want to be on the same page. In any case, that is the scary part, about raising taxes on small businesses.. how does one expect them to survive then? hhhmmmm Could this be a way to kill our economy even more? Does someone have a plan? Don't get me started.. No matter what we call the economy, it's in dire straights and there is to much proof out there. thanks
TAMMI... . that is a huge problem that I have and I am glad that you are okay with that. But that to me is like misleading the public then... unless you truly believe that we are out of a recession. But are you telling me that you are using this "we are out of a recession" to help sell more homes? In my opinion, there are better ways to sell houses or to get buyers to buy than to say, "we are out of a recession". Yes, you can say.. rates are extremely low..because they are. That home values have dropped, because they have..... etc, etc. But to pass out false security? I guess some people can sleep at night for that almighty dollar. Besides, people are scared and the smart ones should know better, no matter what we tell them. Overall, I guess you are okay then to use such simple words, "we are out of a recession", to get people off the fence, even if it's not true. Sorry, but I believe in educating the average person.. When I talk to a potential client, I go over all of their finances and make sure they understand what they are doing... that they are secure in their decision... etc, etc.. just my opinion.
WENDY... . I don't think we can use stimulus to replace recession.. unless you are saying that they are trying to mislead the public with using stimulus. Or that stimulus should sound positive and that it should work. I have seen very little proof that the prior stimulus package worked.. sure, it helped a little... but not even close to what was "promised".. and that the President wants to unleash another stimulus package? Sorry, it won't happen if not done by November's elections.. Just my opinion. But I think your whole point is that, what they say, they hope people believe... thanks
MIKE M. ... . I loved your last several sentences in regards to squinting our eyes and that one could possibly see different meanings of a certain word or phrase. And I agree, you have to love how the current administration keeps changing their ways, views, and words... just to make it sound not as bad as it really is.. and all of these false promises of programs that are put in place, knowing that for the most part, they will fail. aarrrggghhhh..
Recession? What recession? I think you and I should run for office!
Jeff, It was kinda funny, when I read Don't keep reading if you don't want the facts, my first thought was, I don't need the facts, we're Not out of it. lol Thanks for clarifying though. Much appreciated.
I know they are saying that we are out of it, however, we still have a lot of bank owned property that we need to get rid of and we also have a lot of property that the banks have not taken back yet that we will need to sell.... so we still have a little what to go.. This is the right direction so her we go!!
Hi Ho HI HO its off to work I GO!!!
Hi Jeff, I'm all for anything that will get buyers and sellers calling the office again and being ready to buy and sell. For a while now everyone has been scared to do anything.
People, consumers, don't care what labels economists place on their situation. Recession, depression, it really doesn't matter. There is not a person alive that changes their outlook on life and decides to go buy a new Toaster, TV, or car simply because a spokesman makes a declaration of "the recession is over" Whew...I'm glad that's over. We can now go spend money even though I am concerned I may not have job tomorrow, the economist says that the recession is over. Sorry, just doesn't work that way. People react to what THEY are experiencing.
The economist that can measure consumer's fear, accurately, would be worth his/her weight in gold.
NEVIN... .I don't which would be harder... being a politician or doing mortgages... I would just lose, wouldn't do well, because I can be seen through.. that I consider myself to be to transparent. besides, I need money to run.. lol
ERIC... . well, I wrote this with a little twist, kind of like a reverse psychological feeling... we need the facts, right? thanks
KEN... . in or out of a recession, there are a lot of problems that just can't be ignored... and these issues won't go away any time soon, no matter how many stimulus packages they throw into the fire, which I would think would do more damage than good. Not unless they gave everyone $45,000 each.. in my opinion, that would stimulate the economy..
LIZ... . seriously, you want to mislead the public to make a quick buck? People don't need good news or bad news to know it's bad. You think people will be rushing to buy now, just because the gov't says that we are out of a recession? rut row... Those that have common smarts and street smarts know better. Only those that are in a good place, decent credit, and some kind of money will buy. Just like the home buyers tax credit.. there were less than 8% that bought just because of the incentive. Most others were going to buy anyhow... it's a fact. thanks
SCOTT... . bingo... thanks for that statement, which I think is right own the mark. I hope Liz above you reads this.. thanks for the comment.
Boy am I glad to hear that news. As long as it's in the press - I guess it must be true!
Right smack dab in the middle of the Great Depression. It was actually two recessions, interupted by an ass-load of government spending. Seem familiar?
Unemployment tells the tale. Not only did the economy kick the wind out of our sails, but the evolution of technology and outsourcing changed the small business landscape. One report said that the kids in high school will have a series of jobs in their lifetime, and many of those jobs doen't even exist yet.
Middle and upper management who lost their jobs are the hardest hit, and take longest to recover because their skill set is not always transferable.
Even though the GNP is up slightly the last two quarters, no one is breathing a sigh of relief yet.
Lane called it. I second it. I think it is important to declare the end of the recession, otherwise we make history with a double-dip recession, instead of back-to-back recessions.